期刊 2014/15年度国内玉米市场行情预测  被引量:1

Domestic Maize Market in 2014/15

作  者:高笑天[1] 魏斌 

机构地区:[1]国家粮食局粮食交易协调中心 [2]北京京粮股份有限公司

出  处:《农业展望》2014年第11期8-14,共7页Agricultural Outlook

Domestic Maize Market in 2014/15

摘  要:2013年中国玉米产量创下2.177亿t历史新高,为缓解农户售粮压力,国家在东北地区实施临储玉米收购和采购玉米费用补贴政策。在政策执行期内国家收购6 919万t临储玉米,市场供给压力明显缓解。尽管5—9月临储玉米拍卖成交2 902万t,但第3季度国内玉米市场依然一度出现"阶段性"供给偏紧现象,玉米市场价格创下历史新高。2014年国内玉米丰收,国家将会在东北地区继续执行临储收购政策。预计2014/15年度国内饲用玉米消费增加500万t,工业消费增加100万t,社会商业玉米库存数量高于上年度,因此认为2015年国内玉米价格不会超过2014年,临储收购政策对玉米市场价格推升效用减弱。

China's maize output reached a record high of 217.7 million tons in 2013. Government implemented temporary purchasing and storage policy for maize in the northeast area of China, and 69.19 million tons were stored up, which made the pressure of supply loose. Although 29.02 million tons temporary national maize were auctioned from May to September, domestic maize market still once appeared the phenomenon of periodic tight supply in the 3rd quarter of 2014, and prices hit record high. Domestic maize was harvested again in 2014, and the government would continue to carry out the temporary storage purchase policy in the northeast area. It is expected that the consumption of domestic forage maize will increase 5 million tons in 2014/15, industrial consumption will increase 1 million tons, and social commercial maize stocks will be more than last year. Domestic maize price in 2015 will not exceed that of 2014 consequently, and the role of temporary storage purchase policy on promoting maize price will drop off.

关 键 词:玉米 产量 供应 消费 价格 

maize production supply consumption price 

分 类 号:S513[农业科学—作物学]

 

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